A new study published in Scientific Reports indicates that at least 300,000 people in the Himalayan region are currently living in areas vulnerable to natural disasters. Researchers from the UK, Nepal, and India analyzed land use across northern Nepal, parts of south-eastern Tibet, and India’s Uttarakhand, discovering that built-up land in high-risk zones increased by approximately 45% between 2016 and 2023. In areas specifically threatened by glacial lake flooding, development surged by nearly 78% during the same period.
The research team, which examined areas within 50km of Himalayan rivers and around 1,360 glacial lakes, warns that the actual number of people at risk may be significantly higher, as the study focused on specific territories rather than the entire region. The findings highlight an expansion of tourism infrastructure, real estate, and hydropower projects. Lead author and University of Leeds glaciologist C. Scott Watson cautioned that current development decisions will dictate disaster risk for decades to come.
In Pokhara, a major tourism hub, Mayor Dhana Raj Acharya noted the difficulty of managing risks posed by the Seti Gandaki River, where many structures sit within 5m of the banks despite regulations. "Where we move them, and how we do that, is the real challenge," he stated. Local tourism operators, such as homestay owner Phurpa Chhiring Lama, report that the scale of recent disasters is unprecedented. Laxman Subedi, president of the Hotel Association Pokhara, acknowledged that tourism expansion has often occurred without proper planning, noting, "By the time disasters hit, it is too late."
The study’s risk assessment was based on buildings within 50 vertical metres of water bodies. However, local accounts from the August 26 floods in Nepal’s Rasuwa district suggest river levels rose by as much as 70m, burying structures previously considered safe. These risks are exacerbated by climate change, with the Himalayan region warming at twice the global average, leading to accelerated glacial melt, slope instability, and increased rainfall at high altitudes.
During his recent address to the UN General Assembly, Nepalese Prime Minister Balendra Shah emphasized that his nation is paying a "colossal price" for a climate crisis it did not create. Experts like Professor Surya Raj Acharya of the University of Nepal argue that while regulations exist, they are frequently ignored or poorly enforced in favor of economic growth. In India’s Uttarakhand state, activist Anoop Nautiyal similarly claimed that zoning rules are often bypassed. While the Uttarakhand government approved new floodplain zoning regulations on October 12 to mitigate flood damage, experts remain concerned about the feasibility of full protection.
Authorities in Nepal are now moving to implement stricter bans on construction within 15m of riverbanks in vulnerable corridors. Dharam Raj Uprety, chief executive of the national disaster agency, admitted the process is difficult due to the deep-seated attachments people have to their land. As construction continues to outpace safety measures, researchers suggest that implementing insurance grading based on risk levels could serve as a potential tool to encourage safer development practices.
